Base Rates and the Outside View: The Leader’s Guide to Smarter Decisions
As leaders, we’re often celebrated for our intuition and ability to make bold, decisive calls. But too often, intuition leads us astray —…
Causation vs. Correlation Matrix
A Tool for Decision Leaders
How to Structure the College Decision
I’m a father and currently run the Decision Leadership Institute, where we teach decision-making skills to executives. Before that, I led a…
Decision Leadership: How Leaders Can Improve Decision-Making
Managing Cognitive Biases, Thinking Probabilistically, and Structuring Decisions
Numeracy and Probabilistic Thinking Are the Easiest and Most Practical Decision Skills for Leaders
In the realm of decision-making, numeracy and probabilistic thinking often find themselves sidelined, regarded as esoteric, or even…