DECISION-MAKING FOR LEADERS:

Thinking Probabilistically

& Forecasting

Make better bets. Communicate uncertainty. Design smarter decisions.

“The goal of forecasting is not to see what’s coming. It is to advance the interests of the forecaster and the forecaster’s tribe.”
— Philip Tetlock, Superforecasting

Most leadership decisions are bets under uncertainty––

but most leaders don’t treat them that way.

This course equips leaders with the tools, mindsets, and habits of top decision thinkers to reason in probabilities, forecast outcomes, and reduce the noise and bias that undermine decision quality.

You’ll learn how to use base rates, expected value, and confidence calibration to clarify high-stakes decisions, apply practical forecasting techniques for strategy and planning, and embed probabilistic thinking in your team’s culture—without needing a background in statistics.

What You’ll Learn

  • ✺

    Frame decisions as probabilistic bets and avoid “resulting” traps.

  • ✺

    Use base rates, decomposition, and expected value to improve clarity and reduce risk.

  • ✺

    Build and evaluate forecasts using both qualitative and quantitative techniques.

  • ✺

    Identify and reduce overconfidence and judgment noise—individually and in teams.

  • ✺

    Design decision processes that make your organization less surprised by the future.

Course Overview

  • The course is divided into three sessions, and equips leaders with the tools, mindsets, and habits of top decision thinkers to reason in probabilities, forecast outcomes, and reduce the noise and bias that undermine decision quality.

    Sessions are interactive and include lectures, case studies, group discussions, and practical exercises to ensure participants can apply the concepts to real-world leadership scenarios.

    Space is limited!
    We keep our cohorts small and focused to ensure highly-engaging sessions.

    • Thinking in Probabilities: The Foundation of Better Decisions

    • Base Rates and Expected Value — Tools for Better Bets

    • Forecasting 101 — Building and Interpreting Better Judgments

    • Confidence Calibration and Judgment Accuracy

    • Group Judgment, Aggregation, and Noise Reduction

    • Designing a Probabilistic Decision Culture

Interested in group enrollment or professional development options for your team? Other questions?

Let us know.
 info@decisionleadershipinstitute.org